Demand for U.S. industrial real estate is on track to accelerate through the remainder of 2026, according to the latest Industrial Space Demand Forecast from the Commercial Real Estate Development Association (CREDA) Research Foundation.

The outlook assumes a resolution to the conflict with Iran and a return to normal trade and shipping activity; a more prolonged conflict could push inflation and interest rates higher and constrain demand.

Among the report's key takeaways:

• The forecast projects 150.1 million square feet of net absorption in the second half of 2026 and 245.1 million square feet in 2027, building on the 114.3 million square feet absorbed in the first half of the year – a pace consistent with the market's three-year average.
• Resilient consumer spending, continued e-commerce growth and rising data center capital expenditures are the primary drivers of demand, offsetting elevated interest rates and inflation.
• Net deliveries of industrial space averaged just 75.0 million square feet per quarter in the first half of 2026, the slowest pace since early 2018, though space under construction rose 5% year over year to 595 million square feet.
• The vacancy rate ticked up slightly to 6.9%, from 6.8% at year-end 2025, as deliveries modestly outpaced absorption.

This quarter's forecast reflects a substantially expanded model, now combining eight statistical techniques weighted by historical accuracy at each forecast horizon.

"Industrial real estate continues to show it can absorb economic uncertainty without losing momentum,” said Marc Selvitelli, CAE, president and CEO of the Commercial Real Estate Development Association. “Even against a backdrop of elevated rates and geopolitical risk, consumer spending and e-commerce keep this sector on solid footing."

The report is authored by Hany Guirguis, Ph.D., professor of economics and finance at Manhattan University, and Joshua Harris, Ph.D., academic director of the Fordham Real Estate Institute at Fordham University.

The full report is available at credaresearch.foundation.